From the Desk of Ryan Beamon

A Mild Recession and S&P 4,500

For 2022, we saw inflation and continued moderate growth. We were right. This past year, in 2023, we anticipated economic weakness late in the year, and put our S&P 500 target at 3,900.

Outlook 2024: A Turning Point

In 2024, we believe markets will make a definitive turn to a more recognizable place. En route, the transition will be marked by meaningful shifts in a few key areas. Inflation is going down. The risk of a recession is bubbling up again as the effect of post-pandemic...

Battle of the Budget

The US has enough revenue to pay all bondholders, but a roughly $1.5 trillion deficit this year means that if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted, it won’t be able to pay all its obligations, maybe even entitlement payments under Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.