Some investors think the US is already in a recession. As we wrote two weeks ago and as recent data have confirmed, we don’t think that’s the case.

As we celebrate 246 years of national independence, our country is now more than two years into an economic recovery from the two-month COVID Lockdown Depression.

Real GDP declined at a 1.5% annual rate in the first quarter and, as of Friday, the Atlanta Fed’s “GDP Now” model projects zero growth in Q2.