BLOGS
FROM THE DESK OF KEVIN BEAMON
Things I Believe (and how they were passed down to me!)
You have likely heard by now that the founder of Camelback Wealth Strategies, my father Bill Beamon, died on September 19, 2020…
TRUSTED ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES
Slower Growth in Q4, But No Recession
The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate.
A Mild Recession and S&P 4,500
For 2022, we saw inflation and continued moderate growth. We were right. This past year, in 2023, we anticipated economic weakness late in the year, and put our S&P 500 target at 3,900.
Battle of the Budget
The US has enough revenue to pay all bondholders, but a roughly $1.5 trillion deficit this year means that if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted, it won’t be able to pay all its obligations, maybe even entitlement payments under Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.
OUTLOOK
Continued Growth in Q1
The economy continued to grow in the first quarter at what we estimate is a 2.6% annual rate. That’s a slowdown from the 3.1% rate in 2023, but still good compared to the past couple of decades when the average growth rate has been 2.0%. However, we think a chunk of...
Slower Growth in Q4, But No Recession
The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate.
A Mild Recession and S&P 4,500
For 2022, we saw inflation and continued moderate growth. We were right. This past year, in 2023, we anticipated economic weakness late in the year, and put our S&P 500 target at 3,900.
CLIENT LETTER
Client Letter | Outlook 2023: Finding Balance | December 6, 2022
LPL Research’s Outlook 2023: Finding Balance provides perspective on what’s been happening and what may lay ahead in the market, economy, and more.
Client Letter | Looking Ahead | November 2, 2022
LPL Research discusses why there may be emerging reasons to believe that the next year may be more constructive than the last.
Client Letter | Could the Worst be Behind Us? | October 5, 2022
Stocks and bonds are both down significantly. Elevated food and gas prices continue to stretch budgets, and higher interest rates have increased borrowing costs.