One of our main contentions in recent months is that the Federal Reserve, by switching from a scarce reserve model to an abundant reserve model, has completely taken over the short term interest rates marketplace. The Fed’s balance sheet has expanded from $870 billion...
Austrian Economics argues that growth comes from innovation and entrepreneurship, with “the market” directing resources to areas of the economy that provide the greatest returns. It also observes that when government uses interest rates, subsidies, taxes, or other...
The economy continued to grow in the first quarter at what we estimate is a 2.6% annual rate. That’s a slowdown from the 3.1% rate in 2023, but still good compared to the past couple of decades when the average growth rate has been 2.0%. However, we think a chunk of...
The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate. Some will take this week’s Real GDP report to confirm their prior view the recession is simply not in...
Very early this year our economics team got a pleasant surprise: Consensus Economics, which collects forecasts from roughly 200 economists around the world, rated us the most accurate forecasters of the United States for 2022, based on our forecasts for GDP and CPI....
