The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate.
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A Mild Recession and S&P 4,500
For 2022, we saw inflation and continued moderate growth. We were right. This past year, in 2023, we anticipated economic weakness late in the year, and put our S&P 500 target at 3,900.
Outlook 2024: A Turning Point
In 2024, we believe markets will make a definitive turn to a more recognizable place. En route, the transition will be marked by meaningful shifts in a few key areas. Inflation is going down. The risk of a recession is bubbling up again as the effect of post-pandemic...
Battle of the Budget
The US has enough revenue to pay all bondholders, but a roughly $1.5 trillion deficit this year means that if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted, it won’t be able to pay all its obligations, maybe even entitlement payments under Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.
Closer to a Turning Point April 24, 2023
In spite of weakness in some economic data, problems in the banking sector, and much higher interest rates, real GDP in the first quarter will almost certainly show moderate growth. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is 15% higher than its low point in October 2022. And, now,...
The Fed Waffles March 27, 2023
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%. The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important...
Ignore the Crazy | March 13, 2023
The top tax rate on capital gains and dividends would go to 44.6% versus a current 23.8% (almost double!), the top tax rate on regular income would go to 44.0%. Taxes would go up on S Corporations, small business income, and interest income.
Hard Landing, Soft Landing, or No Landing | February 27, 2023
In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed for a hard landing, which would mean a recession, it isn’t even headed for a soft landing…
Outlook 2023: Finding Balance
Through all the challenges, newfound opportunities, and every high and low we’ve experienced during the last couple of years, it’s no surprise why we might be striving for more balance.
We are very excited to announce that we are now able to respond to texts messages to our office number
Many of you have expressed in being able to communicate with us via text Due to a new initiative by LPL, we are very excited to announce that we are now able to respond to texts messages to our office number…