Very early this year our economics team got a pleasant surprise: Consensus Economics, which collects forecasts from roughly 200 economists around the world, rated us the most accurate forecasters of the United States for 2022, based on our forecasts for GDP and CPI....
It’s hard to open up a newspaper these days and not see a scary story about the debt ceiling debate. The Biden Administration is saying that a “default” is approaching if an agreement isn’t reached soon. The US has enough revenue to pay all bondholders, but a roughly...
In spite of weakness in some economic data, problems in the banking sector, and much higher interest rates, real GDP in the first quarter will almost certainly show moderate growth. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is 15% higher than its low point in October 2022. And, now,...
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%. The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important...
While many investors are focused on the financial troubles affecting Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and whether those troubles will spread, there were two other major issues that hit the markets last week: the Biden budget and Fed Chief Powell hinting at raising rates by a...
