Last March, when the government was considering whether to lockdown the economy, we argued that the longer we stayed locked down the more permanent the damage we would do to the underlying economy. It is now clear that the cost of the lockdowns is immense. We aren’t...
With the fourth quarter underway—historically the best quarter for stocks, by the way—2022 is fast approaching. While a lot can still happen between now and the end of 2021, we don’t think it’s too early to start thinking about what stocks might do next year. We see a...
LPL Research is downgrading its 2021 U.S. GDP growth forecast from 6.25–6.75% to 5.75 6.25%. Growth is likely to come in at an annualized pace near 5% over the second half of the year. So, while expectations have been tempered, the recovery still has a lot of...
Until recently, we expected the 10-year Treasury yield to end the year between 1.75% and 2.0%. Now, however, there are two key elements suggesting we are unlikely to see significantly higher interest rates by year end: The Delta variant’s impact on economic growth...
Several policy-related risks loom in September and October that may lead to an increase in market volatility. The debt ceiling needs to be raised (likely by mid-October), the government needs to be funded to avoid a shutdown by the end of September, and the Democrats...
