Narratives get more energy these days because of social media and cable TV, but they’ve always existed. Back in the 1970s, one narrative was that inflation was not caused by too much money creation by the Fed, as Milton Friedman argued. Instead, it was caused by OPEC...
The term stagflation has been circulating increasingly in the financial media as inflation readings have risen sharply in recent months. The term is often associated with the 1970s, which saw runaway inflation—largely driven by sky-high energy prices—and lackluster...
Key changes from July’s report: Downgrading emerging markets from neutral to negative Upgrading United States from neutral to positive We see further (but modest) gains for stocks over the rest of the year, powered by a very strong economic growth outlook and...
Corporate America did it again. Companies blew by estimates and made strategists and analysts look silly (though we humbly suggest that we may have looked less silly than most in our earnings preview on July 12). S&P 500 earnings growth did not surprise by quite...
In an ideal world, analysts and investors wouldn’t have to spend much time, perhaps none at all, trying to manage around changes in government policy. In that world, government – be it in terms of spending, taxes, or regulation – would be small and consistent enough...
