The US has enough revenue to pay all bondholders, but a roughly $1.5 trillion deficit this year means that if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted, it won’t be able to pay all its obligations, maybe even entitlement payments under Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.
In spite of weakness in some economic data, problems in the banking sector, and much higher interest rates, real GDP in the first quarter will almost certainly show moderate growth. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is 15% higher than its low point in October 2022. And, now,...
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday. That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%. The problem was that the Fed continues to ignore the most important...
The top tax rate on capital gains and dividends would go to 44.6% versus a current 23.8% (almost double!), the top tax rate on regular income would go to 44.0%. Taxes would go up on S Corporations, small business income, and interest income.
In the past few weeks, a growing chorus of economists and investors have decided that the pessimistic narrative had it wrong all along, that the US isn’t headed for a hard landing, which would mean a recession, it isn’t even headed for a soft landing…
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points on Friday, caused apparently by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s attempt to use a brief speech to channel the ghost of Paul Volcker.
One thing we must remember when looking at economic data, is that everything is distorted. The US (in fact, much of the world) panicked in 2020.
With less than three months left before the 2022 midterm elections, it is officially silly season when
it comes to interpreting economic reports.
With the Senate having passed a budget plan yesterday with only Democratic votes as well as a tie broken by Vice President Harris…
The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis points) on Wednesday.