With only one week left in the fiscal year, it looks like the budget deficit for the federal government for Fiscal Year 2024 is going to come in at about $1.9 trillion, which is 6.7% of GDP. To put this in historical perspective, we know of no other year in US history...
You don’t have to read or listen for long these days before you hear a politician, pundit, or politically-inclined person say: “Government spending causes inflation.” Don’t get us wrong…anyone who wants to cut the size and scope of government is a friend of ours....
The growth of bureaucracy around the world has led to a proliferation of rules. This creates multitudes of problems, one of which is that the state has made understanding what it is doing impenetrable, boring, nuanced, and technical. With vast resources, numerous...
In 1852, Karl Marx said “Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly encountered and transmitted…
One of our main contentions in recent months is that the Federal Reserve, by switching from a scarce reserve model to an abundant reserve model, has completely taken over the short term interest rates marketplace…
Austrian Economics argues that growth comes from innovation and entrepreneurship, with “the market” directing resources to areas of the economy that provide the greatest returns. It also observes that when government uses interest rates, subsidies, taxes, or other...
The economy slowed substantially in the last quarter of 2023 from the rapid pace of the third quarter, but, as we explain below, still expanded at a moderate rate.
For 2022, we saw inflation and continued moderate growth. We were right. This past year, in 2023, we anticipated economic weakness late in the year, and put our S&P 500 target at 3,900.
The US has enough revenue to pay all bondholders, but a roughly $1.5 trillion deficit this year means that if the debt ceiling isn’t lifted, it won’t be able to pay all its obligations, maybe even entitlement payments under Medicare, Medicaid, or Social Security.
In spite of weakness in some economic data, problems in the banking sector, and much higher interest rates, real GDP in the first quarter will almost certainly show moderate growth. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is 15% higher than its low point in October 2022. And, now,...