Trusted Economic Perspectives

Inflation is a political lightning rod. As a result, there is a good deal of misconception around it.

Wars and conflicts have been a constant throughout history, however recent events might cause us to look at how the stock market has performed during past times of war. The chart below shows the S&P 500 Index level since 1927 and several of the major wars and...

Late last year we unveiled our stock market forecast for 2022, projecting the S&P 500 would rise to 5,250 and the Dow Jones Industrials average would climb to 40,000.

Nothing is normal about the current business cycle; it really is unique. It started with a massive COVID-related lockdown, which caused the deepest and fastest recession on record.

Many analysts were disappointed by last Friday’s job report for December, but we think the headline masks an overall report that shows continued improvement in the labor market and a possible surge in small business start-ups and entrepreneurship.

Welcome to 2022! We can’t imagine a more transformative year for America.

We were bullish in 2021 and bullishness obviously paid off. As of the Friday close, the S&P 500 is up more than 25% so far this year.

On Friday, news of a COVID-19 variant identified in South Africa, and the announcement of new travel
restrictions, sent markets reeling.

Inflation is back and worse than it’s been in decades. Consumer prices rose 0.9% in October and are up 6.2% in the last twelve months.

Investors will be focused on the Federal Reserve this week and our expectation is that it will finally announce an overdue tapering of quantitative easing.