Keynesianism can temporarily giveth, but ultimately always taketh away…and then some. When the US fell into the COVID crisis, the federal government went on a massive spending binge. Pre COVID, in the twelve months through March 2020, federal outlays were $4.6...
Politics today is in large part about pitting one group against another and convincing one side they’ve been treated unfairly. One of those groups is the younger generation of workers known as Millennials, who are supposedly up to their eyeballs in debt and lagging...
In 2009, after overly strict mark-to-market accounting rules were altered, we said the Financial Crisis was over. It was hard to get our voice heard, though, because both sides of the political aisle were busy saying the economy stunk. Political liberals tried to use...
Last March, when the government was considering whether to lockdown the economy, we argued that the longer we stayed locked down the more permanent the damage we would do to the underlying economy. It is now clear that the cost of the lockdowns is immense. We aren’t...
If you’ve read our two most recent Monday Morning Outlooks, you know we raised our forecast for the S&P 500, but lowered our forecast for real GDP growth. How can that be? The first thing to recognize is that when we say we’re bullish on stocks that doesn’t mean...
