Research

Midyear Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets Outlook: Higher for Longer | Weekly Market Commentary | July 21, 2025

And while we think the interplay between the good (lower rates) and bad (higher term premium) will persist throughout the rest of the year, given the still resilient economic conditions, we think rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury yield, could drift higher in the near term before ending the year between 4.0% to 4.5%.

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Continued Growth in Q1

The economy continued to grow in the first quarter at what we estimate is a 2.6% annual rate. That’s a slowdown from the 3.1% rate in 2023, but still good compared to the past couple of decades when the average growth rate has been 2.0%. However, we think a chunk of...

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