Trusted Economic Perspectives

From a national perspective, it certainly isn’t tight. Total nonfarm payrolls were 144.9 million in May 2021, still down 7.6 million from February 2020, right before the COVID shutdowns.

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 61.2 in May, narrowly beating the consensus expected 61.0. (Levels higher than 50 signal expansion; levels below 50 signal contraction.)

Later this week we’ll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that’ll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%.

Ever since the stock market bottomed in 2009 during the financial crisis, people have been coming up with reasons why the bull market was about to end.

The seemingly endless election of 2020 is finally over, with Democrats winning both Senate seats in Georgia.

Following four consecutive months of substantial gains, new home sales took a breather in September.

COVID lockdowns crushed the economy in the first half of 2020, with real GDP down 5.0% at an annual rate in the first quarter and 31.4% at annual rate in the second quarter…